Curse you (again)!  We'll see about that.

Wisconsin deserves it anyway, what with the heartburn that Favre is giving all of us.

McCain has hammered Obama on gas prices (even though they've dropped by 25-26 cents in my area
in the past few weeks).   The firewall of MI, PA, CO, NH, NM better hold up.

Actually, I think Obama needs Hillary on the ticket.  How else to get more Democrats to vote for him?  Edwards may be out as VP after another Rielle Hunter sighting.

about Obama's firewall; these are states that are absolutely necessary for Obama to get to 270 (Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Penn, Michigan, and New Hampshire).  He hasn't been behind in a poll in any one of these states in months and in some cases, his lead is quite substantial.  It may be time to panic if a poll is released showing a deficit in one of these states, especially Michigan, Penn, and New Mexico considering these three states should be in the bag.

Maybe I've been watching too much O'Reilly on Fox News.  The gyms where I work out always have it on.  But it seemed Obama was out of his element there.

He looks desperate, personally... and it's too early for the polls to register the success of his trip, but I wonder if the Maliki endorsement is doing him more harm than good.  Now that it seems that withdrawal of some sort is inevitable, a lot of what attracted voters to Obama (i.e. get out of Iraq) is missing...

Does anyone have any ideas why Obama's polling numbers are dropping?  Nothing really weird or bad happened last week...  what's going on?

McCain's emphasis on the surge may have some temporary benefits as a distraction from less favorable news. However, as a longer-term point of emphasis, it is likely to fail horribly. You see, by constantly emphasizing how well the surge has gone and how safe it has made Iraq, McCain makes Iraq less of an issue. If things are looking so great over there--as McCain constantly preaches--then it's much easier to accept withdrawal, thus making Obama's phased withdrawal seem all the more responsible and popular (and, the general idea of withdrawal is already popular). Furthermore, because Iraq seems more stable and less fragile, Iraq in general will become a less important issue for voters. It's conventional wisdom at this point that McCain's pathway to victory requires making Obama appear too risky for these perilous times. However, McCain is making the argument, a bit indirectly perhaps, that the times are not so perilous anymore--at least not in Iraq.

And, with respect to Afghanistan, the narrative (rightly) holds that McCain has moved toward Obama's long-held position. So, it's tough for McCain to argue that Obama's proposals are unacceptably wrong-headed or risky. In fact, McCain primary beef with Obama is that Obama, by proposing unilateral strikes on Al Qaeda under limited circumstances, wants to kill Osama bin Laden too much. Hah. McCain is soft on terror!

And, most importantly, if McCain isn't benefitting from these wartime challenges, then he's screwed. He has openly admitted that he's weak on economic issues. Because of the Heller decision, gun issues probably aren't going to matter much this year. Social issues, too, are less prevalent in this election. And, even if they were, McCain leaves much of the evangelical base cold. And, on just about every other issue, McCain suffers from in incohesive message and policies.

Add to all this the fact that he's running in Bush's shadow and against a remarkably charismatic, intelligent candidate (with lots of money and a better-organized campaign), well then it becomes even more apparent that McCain needs international turmoil to have a chance. Again, he must show that electing Obama is dangerous. He tried it today with his claim that Obama would deliberately lose a war to win an election, but that comment has actually backfired because McCain's brand depends on some amount of integrity, and that was just over-the-top and classless.

runs with it; it's a pretty big mistake though I question whether Americans will put much value into the mistake.

I would bet that both are wrong and its closer to even or Obama by less than 3% at this point.  

I live here... I've seen it!  Even in supposedly "liberal" Cuyahoga County...  There are still Hillary signs around...  The state is simply hostile to an Obama candidacy, and believe me, there are a ton of people I know who you'd never think would use the N word, use it every day.... especially older democrats, who say, "I've never voted fro a republican in my life, but I won't vote for that N***"

Cleveland is the most segregated city in the country... yes, the country!  Race is a huge problems in this state and the democratic strongholds of Dayton and Cincinnati.

This always has been, and always will be, hostile territory, and racism is a huge factor.

I do not trust PPP.  They had Obama winning in PA.  PPP is good in states like NC, where the demographics favor him, but in a place like Ohio, where the demographics are more like PA, they can't be trusted.

I trust Rasmussen on this one... especially considering what I'm seeing and hearing on the ground here.

exactly. The same thing happened a month ago in Florida. The polls are all over the place.

what do you think the long term implications of a 24/7 negative campaign are on McCain?  Does it drive Obama's numbers now for a few months or does it slowly erode Mcrusty's favorable ratings and hurt him?

Suprisingly, I think that Hillary would have won easily here... not sure why her message resonated here so much, but it did.  I still see Hillary signs around.

I agree with the Hillary supporters... she would have won Ohio easy... problem is, she could have easily lost WI, IA, and MN, so it's not necessarily a slam dunk...